Monday, April 25, 2005
What will a gray Kansas mean for the state budget?
[Joel Mathis, "Aging work force," The Lawrence Journal-World, 24 April 2005.
Robert Tanner, "Governors assessing Medicaid reform," Associated Press, The Lawrence Journal-World, 25 April 2005.]
The population is Kansas is aging, and the impact on Medicaid will be serious as fewer workers are expected to support a growing population of elderly:
he U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that the percentage of elderly Kansans will rise from 12.4 percent of the population in 2000 to more than 20 percent by 2030.
At the same time, the proportion of 18-to-65-year-olds will dip from 60 percent to 55 percent -- meaning there will be a smaller ratio of income earners to pay for the increased services required by the growing number of elderly.
"We are going to have fewer workers out there," said Xan Wedel, a researcher at Kansas University's Policy Research Institute.
According to the Census, Kansas will grow by 9.4 percent between 2000 and 2030, to more than 2.9 million people. That lags far behind the expected growth of 29 percent nationwide during the same time, diminishing the state's relative size -- dropping from 32nd to 35th in the population rankings.
Kansas already has a higher ratio of residents older than age 65 than the national average, but the Census estimates the aging population and diminishing work force will reflect national trends.
That doesn't mean changes won't be costly. Duane Goossen, the state's budget director, said that the state's Medicaid payments -- for nursing home and medical care -- already had risen an average of 12 percent a year during the last half decade, driven both by rising health care costs and the growing number of elderly people in the state.
That trend isn't going to slow down as the state continues to age, Goossen said.
"That's huge," he said. "The rest of the state budget doesn't grow at near that pace, and our revenues don't grow at near that pace. We are trying to factor that kind of percentage increase into our thinking."
State governors around the country are beginning to understand the severity of the situation and are collectively working on some solutions. The question will be whether such efforts will be significant enough and soon enough to make a difference:
The nation's governors, weighing what to tell Congress they want from Medicaid reform, may take aim at the common practice of seniors giving away their assets so the government pays for nursing home care. They could also demand that the poor pay a share -- or a greater share -- of their health care bills.
Those proposals, along with more consumer-friendly recommendations like tax credits for long-term care insurance, are being circulated among the governors in a 12-page document -- a working draft of a statement that could be taken to Congress and the Bush administration. The idea is that the governors would have a united position in the debate over how to rein in soaring costs of the state-federal health care program for the poor.
Governors have not yet agreed on the recommendations and it's unclear yet whether a majority will, according to interviews with governors, state Medicaid officials, aides and health care professionals who have been involved or apprised of the discussions and seen the draft document.
[Matthew Hisrich, "A Backgrounder on Kansas Medicaid," The Flint Hills Center, 19 July 2004.]
[Joel Mathis, "Aging work force," The Lawrence Journal-World, 24 April 2005.
Robert Tanner, "Governors assessing Medicaid reform," Associated Press, The Lawrence Journal-World, 25 April 2005.]
The population is Kansas is aging, and the impact on Medicaid will be serious as fewer workers are expected to support a growing population of elderly:
he U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that the percentage of elderly Kansans will rise from 12.4 percent of the population in 2000 to more than 20 percent by 2030.
At the same time, the proportion of 18-to-65-year-olds will dip from 60 percent to 55 percent -- meaning there will be a smaller ratio of income earners to pay for the increased services required by the growing number of elderly.
"We are going to have fewer workers out there," said Xan Wedel, a researcher at Kansas University's Policy Research Institute.
According to the Census, Kansas will grow by 9.4 percent between 2000 and 2030, to more than 2.9 million people. That lags far behind the expected growth of 29 percent nationwide during the same time, diminishing the state's relative size -- dropping from 32nd to 35th in the population rankings.
Kansas already has a higher ratio of residents older than age 65 than the national average, but the Census estimates the aging population and diminishing work force will reflect national trends.
That doesn't mean changes won't be costly. Duane Goossen, the state's budget director, said that the state's Medicaid payments -- for nursing home and medical care -- already had risen an average of 12 percent a year during the last half decade, driven both by rising health care costs and the growing number of elderly people in the state.
That trend isn't going to slow down as the state continues to age, Goossen said.
"That's huge," he said. "The rest of the state budget doesn't grow at near that pace, and our revenues don't grow at near that pace. We are trying to factor that kind of percentage increase into our thinking."
State governors around the country are beginning to understand the severity of the situation and are collectively working on some solutions. The question will be whether such efforts will be significant enough and soon enough to make a difference:
The nation's governors, weighing what to tell Congress they want from Medicaid reform, may take aim at the common practice of seniors giving away their assets so the government pays for nursing home care. They could also demand that the poor pay a share -- or a greater share -- of their health care bills.
Those proposals, along with more consumer-friendly recommendations like tax credits for long-term care insurance, are being circulated among the governors in a 12-page document -- a working draft of a statement that could be taken to Congress and the Bush administration. The idea is that the governors would have a united position in the debate over how to rein in soaring costs of the state-federal health care program for the poor.
Governors have not yet agreed on the recommendations and it's unclear yet whether a majority will, according to interviews with governors, state Medicaid officials, aides and health care professionals who have been involved or apprised of the discussions and seen the draft document.
[Matthew Hisrich, "A Backgrounder on Kansas Medicaid," The Flint Hills Center, 19 July 2004.]
Comments:
Post a Comment
